Interim political leader of the Independent Liberal Party (ILP) Jack Warner is leading the race in the Chaguanas West by-election which takes place tomorrow.
The most important issue in the by-election was performance of candidate and the majority of respondents said should the ILP win the seat, it should be allowed to join the People’s Partnership Government. Warner also received high ratings as former MP and as the next possible MP.
While the poll puts Warner ahead, 20 per cent of respondents said they did not know who they were voting for, eight per cent said they will not be voting, and 18 per cent said they did not know which party to support. This accounts for 38 per cent of undecided voters. Khadijah Ameen of the United National Congress was rated “good” by 18 per cent of respondents as the next possible MP for Chaguanas West.
These results were from a survey conducted in the Chaguanas West constituency by the ANSA McAL Psychological Research Centre, University of the West Indies, St Augustine for the Trinidad Guardian. The major intention of this survey is to assess popular opinion on the Chaguanas West by-election. A representative random sample of 526 respondents were interviewed and comprised people eligible to vote—six per cent Afro-Trinidadians, 90 per cent Indo-Trinidadians and four per cent mixed people.
The sample consisted of 48 per cent females and 52 per cent males. Face-to-face interviews were conducted. The margin of error is plus or minus four per cent. This poll was conducted during the period July 19 to 21 and was supervised by Dr Derek Chadee, director, ANSA McAL Psychological Research Centre and senior lecturer, Department of Behavioural Sciences, UWI.
More Indians to support Warner
Analysing responses by ethnicity (that is, assessing candidate preference for each ethnic group) revealed significant differences in responses. Mixed people, 50 per cent and Indo-Trinidadians, 49 per cent, were more likely than Afro-Trinidadians, 28 per cent, to indicate they will be voting for Jack Warner—over 20 per cent difference. An 18 per cent difference was observed in the proportion of Indo-Trinidadian and Afro-Trinidadian respondents stating Khadijah Ameen.
Specifically, 24 per cent Indo-Trinidadians, 11 per cent mixed people and six per cent Afro-Trinidadians indicated they will vote for Khadijah Ameen. A choice of Avinash Singh was given by 11 per cent mixed, ten per cent Afro-Trinidadians and one per cent Indo-Trinidadians. When asked how they would rate Warner as the next possible MP, over eight in every ten respondents rated him as “excellent” or “good.”
Across ethnic groups the majority of respondents gave a “good” rating. Eighty-seven per cent were Indo-Trinidadian, 84 per cent was Afro-Trinidadian, and 78 per cent mixed people. The ethnic breakdown of candidate support revealed that an overwhelming majority of Jack Warner supporters were Indo-Trinidadian.
Specifically, 92 per cent Indo-Trinidadian, four per cent Afro-Trinidadian, and four per cent mixed ethnic background. Similarly, for Khadijah Ameen, there were 96 per cent Indo-Trinidadian supporters, two per cent Afro-Trinidadian, and two per cent mixed. Of those supporting Avinash Singh—43 per cent Afro-Trinidadian, 29 per cent Indo-Trinidadian, and 28 per cent mixed. Seventy-five per cent of those who stated that they were “not voting” was Indo-Trinidadian, while 25 per cent was Afro-Trinidadian.
Half of Ameen’s supporters over 50
The poll said almost 50 per cent of Ameen’s supporters were over the age of 50, while Warner amassed 30 per cent in that age category. Warner garnered 70 per cent of support from people between the ages of 18 to 50 while Ameen received 53 per cent. The sex distribution of candidate support indicates that more males than females support Jack Warner, with this response given by 55 per cent males and 45 per cent females.
Of those who indicated Khadijah Ameen, there were 58 per cent male and 42 per cent female.
Conversely, Avinash Singh was supported by more females—57 per cent than males—43 per cent.
The following are the responses to eight questions in the Guardian poll:
What do you think is the most important issue in the Chaguanas West by-election?
Performance of candidate 45%
Infrastructure 27%
Relations between politicians 19%
Crime 5%
Racism 2%
Health 1%
Employment 1%
Do you think that the Independent Liberal Party (ILP) should be allowed to join the People’s Partnership Government if it wins the Chaguanas West by-election?
Yes 61%
No 28%
Don’t know 11%
How would you rate Jack Warner as the former MP for Chaguanas West?
Excellent 61%
Good 28%
Average 5%
Poor 3%
Extremely Poor 3%
How would you rate Jack Warner as the next possible MP for Chaguanas West?
Excellent 58%
Good 28%
Average 8%
Poor 4%
Extremely Poor 2%
How would you rate Khadijah Ameen as the next possible MP for Chaguanas West?
Excellent 9%
Good 18%
Average 25%
Poor 25%
Extremely Poor 23%
If a political party not in Government wins the by-election, do you think that it will be able to access the resources to benefit the constituents?
Yes 48%
No 37%
Don’t know 15%
Who will you be voting for in the Chaguanas West by-election?
Jack Warner 48%
Khadijah Ameen 22%
Avinash Singh 2%
Ishmael Samad 0%
Kirk Meighoo 0%
Oliver Norman 0%
Not voting 8%
Don’t know 20%
Which political party would you support in the Chaguanas West by-election?
United National Congress 24%
People’s National Movement 1%
Independent Liberal Party 50%
Party for Integrity and Morality in Politics 0%
Democratic National Assembly 0%
National Collation for Transformation 0%
None 7%
Don’t know 18%