Jack Warner is the preferred candidate for the Chaguanas West seat according to the findings of a Trinidad Guardian poll conducted by the ANSA McAL Psychological Research Centre based at the University of the West Indies, St Augustine Campus. Of 503 respondents interviewed in the poll, 38 per cent said if they were eligible to vote in the Chaguanas West by-election they would vote for Warner.
But 13 per cent of them said they would vote for a People’s National Movement candidate, one per cent more than those who would vote for a United National Congress candidate. A total of 19 per cent of the respondents said they didn’t know who they would vote for, while three per cent said they wouldn’t vote. Four per cent of the respondents said they would vote for a Congress of the People candidate.
The poll also revealed that 60 per cent of Indo-Trinidadian respondents were most likely to vote for Warner in the by-election. Meanwhile, just over 50 per cent of respondents said the Prime Minister’s handling of Warner’s alleged Fifa/Concacaf corruption was poor to extremely poor, while 47 per cent stated fair to excellent. Analysing responses by ethnicity, 31 per cent of Indo-Trinidadians were the most likely to state ‘good,’ with 56 per cent of the respondents having tertiary education and giving the poor rating.
The majority of respondents indicated that soldiers should not be given powers of arrest, with 80 per cent of them being Afro-Trinidadians. Sixty-five per cent of the respondents who stated ‘no’ had tertiary education. The nationwide survey was done between May 10 to 12 and was supervised by director of the centre and senior lecturer Dr Derek Chadee. The survey was done to assess popular opinion on several major issues.
A representative random sample of 503 respondents was interviewed and comprised people 18 and over with 34 per cent being Afro-Trinidadians, 40 per cent Indo-Trinidadians, 25 per cent mixed, and one per cent other ethnic groups. The sample consisted of 51 per cent females and respondents were selected using the Random Digit Dialing method.
Indo-Trinidadians most likely to vote for Warner
Analysing responses by ethnicity if you were eligible to vote in the Chaguanas West by-election, the poll showed that Indo-Trinidadians were most likely to vote for Warner. Specifically, 60 per cent Indo-Trinidadians, 43 per cent mixed, and 26 per cent Afro-Trinidadians stated Warner in response to this question.
The response to People’s Partnership candidate was—20 per cent Indo-Trinidadians, 19 per cent Afro-Trinidadians, and 17 per cent mixed. Of those stating PNM candidate, 26 per cent were Afro-Trinidadians, 21 per cent mixed and three per cent were Indo-Trinidadians. A response of ‘don’t know’ was given by 29 per cent Afro-Trinidadians, 19 per cent mixed, and 17 per cent Indo-Trinidadians.
Analysing responses by sex showed that of those likely to vote for Warner, 46 per cent were male and 43 per cent female. Those who chose a People’s Partnership candidate were 22 per cent male and 17 per cent female respondents. Similar proportions of males and females indicated support for a PNM candidate, with 15 per cent female and 14 per cent male giving this response. Females at 25 per cent were more likely than males, 18 per cent, to give a response of ‘don’t know’ on this issue.
Analysing responses by education for those who said Warner, 49 per cent were primary educated, 47 per cent secondary, 44 per cent technical/vocational, and 41 per cent tertiary educated people. The response of ‘People’s Partnership candidate’ was stated by 24 per cent primary, 19 per cent technical/vocational, 18 per cent tertiary, and 17 per cent secondary educated people.
The response of ‘PNM candidate’ was stated by 16 per cent technical/vocational, 16 per cent tertiary, 14 per cent secondary and 11 per cent primary educated respondents. Tertiary educated respondents were most likely to say ‘don’t know’ regarding this issue, with 45 per cent tertiary, 22 per cent secondary, 21 per cent technical/vocational, and 16 per cent primary educated people giving this response.
Respondents not satisfied with the PM handling of Fifa issue
When asked how would you rate the Prime Minister’s handling of Jack Warner’s alleged Fifa/Concacaf corruption, over half of respondents said the Prime Minister’s handling of Jack Warner’s alleged Fifa/Concacaf corruption was poor.
Analysing responses by ethnicity, Indo-Trinidadians were the most likely to state ‘good.’ Specifically, 31 per cent Indo-Trinidadians, 11 per cent mixed, and ten per cent Afro-Trinidadians gave this response. Indo-Trinidadians (34 per cent) and mixed (28 per cent) were more likely than Afro-Trinidadians (21 per cent) to state fair. The response ‘poor’ was stated by 69 per cent Afro-Trinidadian, 61 per cent mixed and 35 per cent Indo-Trinidadians. Similar proportions of female (19 per cent) and male (18 per cent), stated good.
There were also marginal differences across other responses, with 31 per cent males and 27 per cent females stating ‘fair,’ and 54 per cent females and 51 per cent males giving the response ‘poor.’ Regarding education, primary educated people were more likely than secondary educated people to state ‘good.’
Specifically, 28 per cent primary education, 20 per cent tertiary, 17 per cent technical/vocational, and 14 per cent secondary educated people stated ‘good.’ Technical/vocational educated respondents were most likely to give a response of ‘fair,’ with 39 per cent technical vocational, 33 per cent secondary, 24 per cent tertiary, and 19 per cent primary educated people giving this response.
Tertiary educated people were more likely than technical/vocational educated people to state ‘poor.’ Precisely, 56 per cent tertiary, 53 per cent secondary, 53 per cent primary, and 44 per cent technical/vocational educated people gave a rating of poor.
62 per cent say no to soldiers having powers of arrest
An analysis of ethnicity revealed that Indo-Trinidadians were more likely than Afro-Trinidadians to indicate that soldiers should be given the powers of arrest. Precisely, 45 per cent Indo-Trinidadians, 24 per cent mixed, and 13 per cent Afro-Trinidadians stated ‘yes’ in response to this question.
Conversely, 80 per cent Afro-Trinidadians were more likely than 67 per cent mixed respondents and 46 per cent Indo-Trinidadians to state ‘no.’ The response ‘don’t know’ was given by nine per cent Indo-Trinidadian, nine per cent mixed, and seven per cent Afro-Trinidadian respondents.
Responses by education showed that technical/vocational educated people were least likely to state ‘yes.’ Specifically, 34 per cent primary educated, 31 per cent tertiary, 27 per cent secondary, and 20 per cent technical/vocational educated people gave this response.
Correspondingly, primary educated people were least likely to indicate that soldiers should not be given the powers of arrest, with 65 per cent secondary, 65 per cent tertiary, 64 per cent technical/vocational, and 55 per cent primary educated respondents stating ‘no.’ A response of ‘don’t know’ was given by 16 per cent technical/vocational, 11 per cent primary, 8 per cent secondary, and four per cent tertiary educated respondents.
Ratings
Do you think that soldiers should be given the powers of arrest?
Yes 29 per cent
No 62 per cent
Don’t know 9 per cent
Ratings
How would you rate the Prime Minister’s handling of Jack Warner’s alleged Fifa/Concacaf corruption?
Excellent 2 per cent
Good 16 per cent
Fair 29 per cent
Poor 35 per cent
Extremely Poor 18 per cent
Ratings
If you were eligible to vote in the Chaguanas West by-election, whom would you vote for?
Jack Warner 38 per cent
UNC candidate (other than Jack Warner) 12 per cent
PNM candidate 13 per cent
COP 4 per cent
People’s Partnership 1 per cent
None 7 per cent
Don’t know 19 per cent
Won’t vote 3 per cent
Other party 3 per cent