If voting patterns change in the UNC stronghold of Chaguanas West in the July 29 by-election and Jack Warner wins, it will not be because of a complete transcending of the racial rubicon that has traditionally defined politics in T&T. Rather, it would be largely because of the perceived performance of Warner, who is no ordinary Afro-Trinidadian candidate in an Indo constituency—says political analyst Dr Indira Rampersad.
Chaguanas West, a previously almost obscure UNC safe seat, is now at the centre of the national limelight with five parties vying for it, with former vice-president Warner and his new party, the Independent Liberal Party (ILP), the star attraction. Chaguanas West shot into national prominence when Warner resigned the seat after calls for his resignation following a damning Concacaf report on his performance at the helm of the regional governing body for football and then announced he was recontesting it for revalidation.
Rampersad said based on media reports, the crowd at the launch of Warner’s party last Friday showed he had tremendous support. “If the stronghold swings, it will not be because of a broad change in attitude or the transcending of the racial rubicon,” she said. “It would be because Chaguanas West believes it has an MP who served the constituents.”
Noting other MPs might have performed, Rampersad said: “Warner is a very clever politician. He rose from the countryside of Rio Claro to become the vice-president of the world’s largest football body. “He is not the ordinary Afro-Trinidadian politician going into an Indo constituency”, she said. “Remember, he overwhelmingly won the chairmanship of an Indo-based party. “With his peculiar brand of politics, Warner has been able to successfully sell himself and has convinced the constituents he can give them what they want.
“He has also gone to great lengths to personally touch the constituents. If voting patterns change in Chaguanas West, it would be strictly on performance.” Rampersad said whether all of that was genuine concern on Warner’s part or just clever political strategy remained to be seen.
Asked if Warner went into Laventille, a PNM stronghold with voting patterns similar to Chaguanas West, he would be able to pull off the same feat, she said: “You just can’t translate Chaguanas West into Laventille. “It would depend on a lot of factors, like the level of disenchantment, the kind of service they have been getting from their MP.”
Asked if the people of Chaguanas West, following another PNM political tradition, could not take all the goodies they got from different parties and duped them into believing they would vote for them, like in the recent Tobago House of Assembly elections, then voted as they were accustomed to, she said: “Some will do that, but it seems like some are genuinely committed to Warner.”