Political analyst Maukesh Basdeo has described Jack Warner’s offer to join his Independent Liberal Party (ILP) with the PP Government after the July 29 by-election as “quite confusing.” Basdeo said the same thing happened in 2007 when the Congress of the People (COP) was formed. “They were basically targetting the UNC supporters,” Basdeo told the T&T Guardian in a telephone interview.
“Mr Warner’s support is basically the same. What you are going to see is a dwindling of the base of the UNC. Warner will attract UNC votes more than he would attract PNM votes.” “If Warner wins the by-election, Basdeo said, it would be difficult to say how he would interact with his parliamentary colleagues. “Will Warner come back into the Government as a partner? Would he be another party to the Government, just like the COP or TOP?”
Basdeo added: “If Warner wants to come back in the Cabinet, it would be the same reason that she (Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar) would have opted to exercise for taking his resignation. Those issues will still remain. The point is, can Mr Warner be brought back into the Cabinet? That is a decision the Prime Minister will have to make on her own.” Basdeo said if Warner is victorious in the by-election, however, he could provide parliamentary support to the PP.
But he said if the issues surrounding the Concacaf report and the probe by US officials are not resolved, “I can’t see how can he be brought back into Cabinet.” “How will this impact on his image? If these matters are not resolved after July 29, anything is possible.” Basdeo warned that if the ILP’s support base extended outside Chaguanas West, it could spell trouble for the UNC and the Government.
Political analyst Dr Winford James said even though the Government had criticised Warner and vice versa, “there’s the pragmatic possibility that they will” accept him back “to stem the tide of disintegration and enhance their chances of survival in 2015.” James said Warner’s move was contradictory and ironical: “On the one hand, he is competing against them with his own political party, and on the other he is signalling that if he wins the by-election he will seek to join up with them.
“So clearly, he wants to be with them from a position of strength and advantage,” he said. “They may consider they need his support for legislative purposes or credibility or greater political impact, and they may consider that they don’t because they still have the enabling numbers. “But he will have the upper hand in the bargaining process if they go that way, which would make his move advantageous to him, if not for them. It is not a matter of wisdom but of political expediency.”
If the PM accepts Warner’s offer, James said, it could be quite disruptive or could cause the PP to put their tails between their legs and move on. James said the UNC was in a fight which they sense they may not win. “Yes, they are nervous and will pull out all stops to win.”