The July 29 Chaguanas West by-election which falls in the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, from July 9 to August 7, will not affect the Muslim vote, says political scientist Dr Indira Rampersad.
“Chaguanas West is a largely Hindu community,” Rampersad told the T&T Guardian on Thursday, hours after Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar announced the date for the highly anticipated by-election.
Rampersad said in any case, the Government had the support of the Muslim community over the timing of the election.
She said the election had to be called 90 days after the Speaker of the House declared the seat vacant and was constitutionally due.
The seat was declared vacant after incumbent Jack Warner resigned as MP and also gave up his portfolio as National Security Minister and UNC chairman.
He is now seeking to recontest the seat, but it remains unknown whether he will be selected as a UNC candidate or go up as an independent.
The Government has six weeks to name its candidate.
Warner’s action came after public calls for his resignation in the wake of a damning report on Concacaf during his tenure there as vice-president.
Asked about the possible outcome of the by-election, Rampersad said: “A loss for the UNC will not put the party in a good light.
“The UNC’s fortunes will depend on voter turnout (there are around 20,000 voters in Chaguanas West), who is their candidate and their election machinery.”
Rampersad said Chaguanas West was traditionally a UNC stronghold and the Opposition PNM would not be a major split factor. It would be interesting to see the party’s mobilisation strengths, she said.
Warner started his campaign in early May, but Rampersad is not sure this will augur well for him.
“Campaign tempo usually builds up two weeks before. His supporters can suffer from burnout and fatigue and may run out of rhetoric.”