Political analyst Dr Winford James says the recent Solution by Simulation poll confirms suspicions that the Government was motivated to alter the Constitution to its political advantage. James said the results show a familiar picture of tribal voting in safe United National Congress (UNC) and People’s National Movement (PNM) seats.
“The matter is reduced to the marginals. The results of the SBS poll suggest the marginals are going to be critical,” James said yesterday in response to the weekend release of the poll. And this is where the runoff election will come in, he said. “Before the poll, the Government attempted to amend the Constitution. Now we are seeing that if the election is called, it is in the marginals the runoff would happen.
“The intent of the UNC is to hope that in a runoff between the two major parties, non-UNC and non-PNM voters would vote for the UNC,” he added. According to the poll, the Opposition had the edge in the marginals but runoffs may favour the Government. James said all the People’s Partnership (PP) would need were three marginals to win the election. He said past election results show when the UNC and the Congress of the People unite, they were victorious.
Political scientist Dr Indira Rampersad, however, said the Government had until September 2015 to call the general election and voters can change their minds tomorrow, next month or in 2015. She expressed concern over the analysis of the results of the SBS poll and said it would be interesting to see the methodology used in conducting it. “I don’t know how they can predict a runoff will favour the Government. A runoff has not been put to the test as yet in T&T,” she noted.
She said there could never be a tie in the election either because there were 41 seats. Further, she said, the 34 per cent and 32 per cent for the PP and PNM respectively, could not be referring to voters, since T&T was not under a proportional representation system. Rampersad said it was also not quite clear in which marginals the PNM had the edge.
She said San Juan/Barataria and St Joseph were safe UNC seats, noting it was the split between the UNC and the ILP that led the PNM to win the St Joseph by-election. With the exception of Tunapuna and San Fernando West, most of the rest of seats on the East/West Corridor are traditionally safe PNM seats, she said.
“Tunapuna and San Fernando West were won by the UNC when (Basdeo) Panday was prime minister. These are the seats that will determine the outcome of the 2015 general election,” she added. She said one thing was certain, the results of the 2015 general election would be close. “Whoever wins will win by one or two seats,” she said.
Asked about alliances between the UNC and smaller parties, Rampersad said the Movement for Social Justice, led by David Abdulah, was not inclined to join with the ruling party. Asked by the T&T Guardian for his response to the results of the poll, Abdulah said he did not wish to comment. Rampersad said the COP was in shambles and what was left of it, led by Prakash Ramadhar, was likely to remain with the PP.
The Independent Liberal Party, founded by Jack Warner and led by former senate vice-president Lyndira Oudit, has expressed interest in returning to the PP, she said. “They did say they were open to forging an alliance with anyone,” she said. Efforts to reach the ILP were not successful yesterday.
Political analyst Dr Mukesh Basdeo said the poll reflected what had been happening among the electorate for much of the year; it was evenly divided on political allegiance. He said a two per cent lead by the People’s Partnership was not a commanding one. “It may come down to the runoffs,” he said. He said what was to be watched was voter behaviour. “Whether they will come out to vote for the second time in a runoff. This is signal a change in our political culture,” he added.
Basdeo said it was still too early to make definite predictions on the outcome of the general election, though. He said polls were snapshots in time and voters could change their minds in 2015.
Fixin T&T
Kirk Waithe, head of Fixin T&T, yesterday said runoff elections would exacerbate the problems of exorbitant spending by political parties on campaigns. He said all parliamentarians needed to help stop the runoff from becoming law. At the same time, he said, they also needed to ensure that legislation was put in place to control political party and campaign financing and procurement of contracts.
“Without this intervention, well in excess of $1 billion will be spent on political campaigns leading up to the next general election. “The unfortunate prospect of runoff elections, deceptively imposed on the people exacerbates this already huge problem,” he said.