The results of the Express-commissioned poll which shows the results of the 2015 general election would be close, with the People’s Partnership in the lead, has brought strong and diverse reactions from the two main political contenders and political analysts. The results have left the PNM gloating about its improved popularity and impending victory, and boasting it has not even played its best card yet, its manifesto and its 41 candidates.
On the other hand, UNC Deputy Political Leader Dr Roodal Moonilal said they were heartened by the results and are cautiously optimistic. Moonilal said the results disputed the PNM’s position over the last few years that it was growing in popularity and was a clear-cut winner for the 2015 general election.
Tobago-based political analyst, Dr Winford James, said all the PP needed for victory was its safe seats and three marginals and said the poll’s results confirmed suspicions that the Government altered the Constitution to win the election. Dr Indira Rampersad said the marginals of Tunapuna and San Fernando West would determine the results of the election. She said polls were snapshots in time and a lot could change by 2015.
The results of the poll done by Solution By Simulation (SBS) show voters divided in near equal numbers for the UNC and the PNM, with the People’s Partnership emerging with “34 per cent” and the PNM, “32 per cent”. The poll also says the Opposition has the edge in the marginals but runoffs (recently passed in Parliament) in these seats can lead to the PP winning the election. Moonilal said the PP was very much heartened by the findings of the SBS poll.
“We are cautiously optimistic. We take all polls seriously because they are a snapshot of the electorate at a given point in time. “If we had listened to the PNM over the last few years, you would think they were ascending and were the clear-cut winner for the 2015 general election. “But we have confidence in the people. The poll indicates we are ahead or in a dead heat in some of the marginals. “And we have not begun our 2015 election campaign as yet.”
Moonilal added that the poll showed Persad-Bissessar enjoying widespread support even when she had to make critical and, at times, controversial decisions on public policy. “But the most important decision Dr Rowley had to make over the last four years was whether to play golf in Trinidad or Dubai,” he quipped.
Al Rawi: UNC in a do or die situation
Al PNM PRO Faris Al Rawi said the poll was a snapshot in time and demonstrates the ascendancy of the PNM. “Importantly, it confirms the PNM’s lead in the marginals and, disaggregated, confirms an overall victory for the PNM in the general election.
Reminded of the newspaper’s headline which stated the election would be a tie, while at the same time showing the PP in the lead with 34 per cent and the PNM 32 per cent, Al Rawi said he was not concerned with the headline but the details as revealed in the content of the poll’s results. “Thirty-four and thirty-two are irrelevant. From what the details say, the PNM is ahead in the marginals by eight per cent.
“If the election was called now, the safe seats would be rendered irrelevant. And the PNM has not even played its best hand yet, its manifesto and 41 candidates.” Asked about rumours that Mikela Panday, daughter of former UNC leader and prime minister Basdeo Panday, was likely to contest a Princes Town seat as a PNM candidate, Al Rawi replied: “We will wait and see. Calls for screening have been made and there is massive interest in the PNM and you have to wait until you see who comes out.”
He said the poll further demonstrated that the popularity rating of Opposition leader Dr keith Rowley has improved from 17 per cent to 42 per cent while Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar’s has dropped from 75 per cent to 46 per cent. Al Rawi made no comment on the fact that Persad-Bissessar still remains the favoured leader. He said the PNM’s own internal polls, broader and deeper than the SBS poll, were even more positive.
Commenting on the SBS poll which shows that while the PNM had the edge in the marginals, runoff elections here can favour the PP, Al Rawi said, “The poll also demonstrates the Government’s shameless machinations in seeking to amend the Constitution to provide for the runoff phenomenon. “The UNC is in a do or die situation and now has to rely on trickery through constitution amendment for political survival.”
