These results are from a nationwide survey on current issues by the ANSA McAL Psychological Research Centre, University of the West Indies, St Augustine, for the T&T Guardian. The main intention of this survey is to assess popular opinion on a number of major issues. A representative random sample of 503 respondents was interviewed and comprised people 18 years and over with 34 per cent Afro-Trinidadians, 40 per cent Indo-Trinidadians, 25 per cent mixed and 1 per cent other ethnic groups.
The sample consisted of 51 per cent females. Respondents were selected using the Random Digit Dialling Method. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 per cent. This poll was conducted during the period May 10-12 and was supervised by Dr Derek Chadee, director, ANSA McAL Psychological Research Centre and senior lecturer, Department of Behavioural Sciences, University of the West Indies, St Augustine.
An analysis of the results of three polls since 2011 shows an upward trend in support for the People’s National Movement (PNM) and a downward trend in support for the People’s Partnership (PP). Specifically, in April 2011, 38 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the People’s Partnership if a general election were held. However, support for the PP has decreased by seven points as of May 2013.
Conversely, 15 per cent of respondents in April 2011 indicated support for the PNM if a general election were held. In two years, however, this support has increased by five points.
Indo-Trinidadians most likely to support PP
Analysing responses by ethnicity, there was a 46 per cent difference in the proportion of Afro-Trinidadians and Indo-Trinidadians stating they would vote for the People’s Partnership. Specifically, 55 per cent Indo-Trinidadians, 20 per cent Mixed, and 9 per cent Afro-Trinidadians, a total of 89 per cent, said they would support the People’s Partnership if a general election was held.
Corresponding differences were found for the response “PNM,” with 38 per cent Afro-Trinidadians, 21 per cent Mixed and 8 per cent Indo-Trinidadians giving this response. The response “none” was given by 38 per cent Mixed people, 29 per cent Afro-Trinidadians and 23 per cent Indo-Trinidadians. In response to this question, 24 per cent Afro-Trinidadians, 21 per cent Mixed and 14 per cent Indo-Trinidadians stated they were undecided.
The ethnic breakdown of party support showed that for the People’s Partnership, 74 per cent were Indo-Trinidadians, 16 per cent Mixed, and 10 per cent Afro-Trinidadians. The ethnic composition of those supporting the PNM was 59 per cent Afro-Trinidadians, 26 per cent Mixed and 15 per cent Indo-Trinidadians.
Afro-Trinidadians not satisfied with PP performance
The PP and PNM received ratings which were almost on par regarding their perfromance—67 per cent of respondents gave the PP a rating of fair to excellent while the 61 per cent rated the PNM fair to excellent. Across ethnic groups, there was a 31 per cent difference in the proportion of Afro-Trinidadians and Indo-Trinidadians giving a rating of “good” on the performance of the PP Government. Specifically, 42 per cent Indo-Trinidadians, 23 per cent Mixed, and 11 per cent Afro-Trinidadians rated “good.”
A “fair” rating was given by 43 per cent Afro-Trinidadians, 41 per cent Mixed, and 37 per cent Indo-Trinidadians. Afro-Trinidadians were the most likely to rate the Government’s performance as “poor.” Specifically, 46 per cent Afro-Trinidadians, 36 per cent Mixed, and 21 per cent Indo-Trinidadians said “poor.” The performance of the People’s Partnership Government was rated as “good” by 29 per cent female and 26 per cent male respondents.
Males (41 per cent) were marginally more likely than females (38 per cent) to give a “fair” rating. A rating of “poor” was indicated by 33 per cent male and 33 per cent female respondents. Similarly, an analysis of ethnic groups revealed that Mixed people were least likely to rate the performance of the PNM Opposition as “good.” Specifically, 27 per cent Afro-Trinidadians, 17 per cent Indo-Trinidadians, and 15 per cent Mixed gave this rating.
The PNM was given a performance rating of “fair” by 50 per cent Afro-Trinidadians, 45 per cent Mixed, and 32 per cent Indo-Trinidadian respondents. There was a 28 per cent difference in the proportions of Indo-Trinidadians and Afro-Trinidadians who gave a rating of “poor.” In particular, 51 per cent Indo-Trinidadians, 40 per cent Mixed, and 23 per cent Afro-Trinidadians gave a performance rating of “poor.”
Younger people give PP “fair” rating
Analysing responses by age showed marginal differences across age groups for a rating of “good.” Specifically, 28 per cent of respondents 18-30, 27 per cent 31-40, 30 per cent 41-50 and 25 per cent of those 51 and older gave this response.
Younger respondents were more likely than older respondents to rate the performance of the PP Government as “fair,” with 47 per cent of those 18-30, 44 per cent 31-40, 38 per cent 41-50 and 35 per cent of respondents 51 and older giving this response. A rating of “poor” was given by 25 per cent of the 18-30 age category, 29 per cent 31-40, 33 per cent 41-50 and 40 per cent of those in the 51-plus age group.
Technical/vocational educated people were least likely to give a rating of “good.” Specifically, 30 per cent primary, 28 per cent secondary, 26 per cent tertiary, and 20 per cent technical/vocational educated people gave this response.
A rating of “fair” was given by 43 per cent technical/vocational, 43 per cent secondary, 37 per cent primary and 37 per cent tertiary educated people. The secondary educated were least likely to rate the performance of the Government as “poor,” with 37 per cent tertiary, 37 per cent technical/vocational, 33 per cent primary, and 29 per cent secondary educated respondents offering this rating.
50-plus rates PNM performance “fair”
With regard to this question, female respondents (23 per cent) were more likely than male respondents (16 per cent) to rate the performance of the PNM Opposition as “good.” Similarly, a performance rating of “fair” was given by 42 per cent females and 41 per cent males. Males (43 per cent) were more likely than females (35 per cent) to indicate that the performance of the PNM as the Opposition party was “poor.”
Analysing responses by age showed that people 51 and older were marginally more likely to give a rating of “good.” Specifically, 18 per cent of respondents 18-30, 18 per cent 31-40, 16 per cent 41-50 and 23 per cent of those 51 and older gave this response.
Younger respondents were also more likely than older respondents to rate the performance of the PNM as the Opposition party as “fair,” with 48 per cent of people 18-30, 47 per cent 31-40, 39 per cent 41-50 and 36 per cent of those 51 and older stated this response. Conversely, a performance rating of “poor” was given by 34 per cent of the 18-30 age category, 35 per cent 31-40, 45 per cent 41-50 and 41 per cent of those in the 51-plus age group.
Tertiary educated people were least likely to rate the performance of the PNM Opposition as “poor,” with 51 per cent technical/vocational, 40 per cent primary, and 37 per cent secondary, and 35 per cent tertiary educated people giving this rating.
Ratings
If a general election were held today, which political party would you vote for?
UNC 9 per cent
COP 3 per cent
NAR 1 per cent
PP 19 per cent
MSJ 1 per cent
PNM 20 per cent
None 29 per cent
Don’t know 20 per cent
Ratings
Overall, how do you rate the performance of the PNM as the Opposition party in Parliament?
Excellent 2 per cent
Good 18 per cent
Fair 41 per cent
Poor 30 per cent
Extremely poor 9 per cent
Ratings
Overall, how would you rate the performance of the People’s Partnership since coming into office in May 2010?
Excellent 4 per cent
Good 23 per cent
Fair 40 per cent
Poor 25 per cent
Extremely poor 8 per cent